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January 10, 2026

Foresight Report Unlocking India's Inbound Tourism

Foresight Report: Unlocking India's Inbound Tourism Potential by 2035

By Aditendra Jaiswal

Executive Summary: Actions for Global Tourism Leadership

India's tourism sector is projected to double its economic contribution by 2035, driven by an ambitious goal of attracting 75 million international tourists annually. This growth is heavily dependent on successfully opening up 25 previously untapped Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities for high-value, niche tourism. The forecasts indicate that success will be less constrained by capital investment (which is high) and more by the political will to enact digital and sustainability reforms.

To realize the estimated $16.94 Billion revenue potential from these emerging destinations and avoid the 'Fragmented Excellence' challenge, the following high-priority actions must be taken:

| Action Area | Strategic Imperative (2026-2035) | Expected Impact | | Digital Simplification | Accelerate Digital Tourist Identity (DTI) implementation (Forecast Probability: 85%). Integrate the e-passport system with all major tourism touchpoints (visa processing, on-site entry, payments) to ensure seamless, friction-free travel, eliminating regulatory delays. | Bypasses traditional infrastructure gaps and streamlines flow for 70% of visitors to new cities. | | Sustainability Certification | Mandate and enforce Zero-Waste Eco-Circuit Certification (Forecast Probability: 80%) for all new public and private infrastructure investments across the 25 emerging destinations. | Attracts the high-value, conscious traveler segment (the 'Green Ascent' scenario), protecting cultural and natural assets from over-tourism. | | Local Empowerment | Develop and scale decentralized service models (e.g., local digital platforms) that directly empower community service providers (Paryatan Mitras). This shifts service control and economic benefits away from large national operators. | Addresses the 'Regulatory Friction' challenge by aligning service delivery with the strong local aspiration for Economic Triumph and Dignity. |

Part 1: The Vision and Foundational Context for 2035

The long-term vision for India's travel sector is one of profound growth and global prominence, driven by strong collective aspirations among key groups—notably urban youth and local entrepreneurs—for achieving Global Leadership in Sustainable, Tech-Empowered Tourism. This high emotional intensity and desire for Systemic Reform and Tech Transcendence acts as a major catalyst for change, propelling positive outcomes that might otherwise be constrained by quantitative limitations like historical implementation inconsistency.

The forecast is underpinned by clear foundational trends: the national target to attract 75 million inbound tourists annually; substantial government capital investment (over ₹6,800 crore already committed, with new funds sanctioned for lesser-known sites); and major technological infrastructure upgrades, including the full transition to e-passports by 2035 and integration of the IndiaAI Mission. However, this ambition is moderated by the persistent challenge of inadequate physical infrastructure, particularly in remote tourist circuits.

Part 2: High-Probability Future Scenarios and Key Drivers

The predictive analysis identifies two high-probability scenarios that will shape inbound tourism to the 25 emerging cities:

1. Baseline Scenario: 'Digital Diversification' (85% Probability)

This future is defined by the high likelihood of Digital Tourist Identity (DTI) Success. By 2035, the majority of inbound travelers to the 25 untapped cities use a seamless, AI-enabled DTI system for fast immigration, personalized journey planning, and accessing services. This outcome is highly probable not just due to government investment but because the powerful public aspiration for a seamless, world-class India demands its implementation. This rapid digital adoption overcomes deficits in physical infrastructure by offering superior service quality and real-time guidance. As a result, niche segments like MICE, Wellness, and Adventure Tourism boom, driven by the perceived 'Ease of Tourism.'

2. Disruptive Scenario: 'The Green Ascent' (80% Probability)

This optimistic future is driven by the successful Scaling of Eco-Tourism Circuits and strong market demand. The strong aspiration for Sustainable Reform among youth and conscious travelers creates an environment where high-value tourists actively seek certified eco-friendly destinations. This demand mandates that 80% of new infrastructure investment in the 25 cities adheres to certified, low-impact, sustainable guidelines. The success of these green ventures leads to a positive financial feedback loop that bolsters community empowerment, effectively attracting a high-value, conscious traveler segment and disincentivizing non-sustainable mass tourism.

Part 3: Parallel Challenges and Untapped Potential by 2035

The sector's growth is not uniform and faces parallel challenges depending on which demographic drives the future:

A. The Challenge of Fragmentation

If the market is driven primarily by the Global Affluent Tourist segment, the forecast indicates a high probability of 'Fragmented Excellence.' In this scenario, investment is concentrated in only 5-10 designated "mega-zones" (e.g., high-end luxury circuits and MICE centers like Jaipur or Kochi) with guaranteed world-class digital and physical infrastructure. The remaining 15-20 smaller cities struggle with inconsistent service quality and under-investment, creating an Exclusion and Dilution challenge, where high-end travel thrives but the potential of mass regional dispersal is lost.

B. Untapped Revenue Potential

Despite these risks, the sheer volume of niche tourism opportunities promises massive growth for the 25 identified cities, estimated to attract 11.3 million inbound visitors and generate $16.94 Billion in international tourist revenue by 2035.

This potential is spread across four key niches:

Spiritual/Cultural Hubs (e.g., Ayodhya, Puri, Mathura): Driven by massive infrastructure upgrades and the high emotional will for national pride and cultural heritage revival.
Eco-Tourism/Adventure Circuits (e.g., Meghalaya, Ziro Valley, Spiti Valley): Reliant on the successful implementation of the 'Green Ascent' scenario and strict carrying capacity management.
Heritage/Architecture Destinations (e.g., Hampi, Khajuraho, Ahmedabad): Dependent on specialized heritage restoration and seamless digital access to historical context.
Wellness/Medical & Niche (e.g., Kochi, Coimbatore, Coastal Gujarat): Capitalizing on India’s strengths in affordable, high-quality healthcare and traditional healing (Ayurveda/Yoga).

The forecasted success of cities with strong spiritual and medical offerings (like Ayodhya, Kochi, and Jaipur) heavily relies on the Digital Tourist Identity streamlining crowds and logistics, reinforcing the necessity of technological reform as the primary catalyst for achieving the 2035 potential.